The ICO market is dying – this statement is heard more often than not, from everywhere. The allegedly dying market stimulates the hunters to fast and free money and ICO is just a bunch of raw ideas, or even, consisting of no ideas at all.
Realtors use blockchain in real estate, taxi drivers and truckers – in cargo and passenger transportation, and I wonder how the loaders don’t launch their ICO: for example, any service where you can call the loader, the same thing as when reading an announcement on Avito, but on the blockchain base.
90% of various ICO projects are trash and garbage. To check whether the project attracts attention or not, try to answer the question whether it will be able to work without blockchain. If yes, then it should alert you.
Classic ICO involves a cryptocurrency. Nobody comes up with different schemes of guaranteed profitability, no one invents a bicycle, no one releases the shares of non-existent companies, calling them tokens. ICO is the sale of coins, newly formed cryptocurrency, and that’s it.
This is the Bitcoin effect – if you take a look at the cost of Bitcoin in the very beginning, when ten thousand Bitcoins were offered for one dollar, in comparison to its value now, everything becomes clear – you would have the opportunity to return to the past and invest in Bitcoin even if you needed to sell your last socks for doing it. Yet now it’s too late. Investing a couple of dollars at the start of Bitcoin, you would’ve become a billionaire now.
It is precisely the hope for the repetition of this story that those who buy new coins are counting on. Ethereum was sold for a penny at the beginning, Monero had jumped from three dollars to four during four years, and only recently it reached two hundred dollars. Whilst Bytecoin was dangling at the level of a thousand coins for a dollar, so it still almost dangles at the same level. In general, ICO helps developers sell new cryptocurrency.
What is happening now is crowdfunding on new rails. Once there was such a phenomenon as crowdfunding, projects who have also collected millions, yet the amount of investment was constantly decreasing, since at that time it was the same thing happening with the market as with ICO now. Back then, the crowdfunding projects were like this:
I’ve got a product, take a look at it, feel it, it’s cool, isn’t it? Do you like it? Help me with money to start mass production…
Then a bit later, they already were like this:
I have an interesting idea, give me some money, I will make a prototype and then I’ll start mass production…
And at the end, they turned into something like this:
I have no ideas, I have no money, I do not have a prototype, and there is nothing at all, except for the desire to scoop. Give me some money and I’ll think up some idea… maybe…
The same thing is happening now on the ICO market. First, they sold coins of ready-made cryptocurrencies, then they bought coins in the expectation that its exchange rate would rise. Then they collected money to create a cryptocurrency, yet now they are collecting money for anything, and they are making their own tokens. They have some sort of profitability, and so on. Now ICO is a trade of ideas, but soon, as I suspect, there will not even be ideas.
There are customers who come and say “help me conduct an ICO”. Some time ago they offered and described their ideas, but now their ideas have come to an end. Some random Jack, who somewhere has heard that the ICO is helping attract millions, decided that he also wants to conduct ICO. He is looking for ICO on a turn-key basis on Google and that’s all. Then he came and said “help me conduct an ICO”.
There are no ideas, there is no money either, but why do you need money then? You think you will make ICO, collect a couple of millions, and pay me out of this money?
Wait a minute! If you have no ideas and money, then why do you need the project? Maybe I’ll do everything without you!
For some reason, none of these ICO “developers” even think about that. In general, as I believe ICO will not die, the market will certainly take hold, more of such startups will climb into the ICO to dilute the attention of investors, dilute the amount, and eventually each of them will begin to collect a couple of cents per person. After that, those who crave fast money doing nothing will leave the market, or they will simply be squeezed out by investors who will learn to think and distinguish smart projects from delirium. So, over time, the quality of the projects conducting ICO will start to rise and at some point will find its balance, as it is now happening with the market of crowdfunding – sensible projects collect money, while different rubbish remains empty-handed, but until that moment, the amount of nonsense will grow, until someone decides to launch the ICO without any ideas at all – the site will be detailed about the project team, and everything will be reduced to the fact that “see how cool we are, give us money and we will think of something”.
Now investors need just to look carefully at the projects before investing. First of all, ICO involves a cryptocurrency. It is worth investing in new coins, i.e. cryptocurrency, not tokens, which promise to have returns and blah blah blah. The most important question that an investor should ask is whether the project can take place without blockchain. If the answer is “yes”, then the blockchain will be used for the conduction of the ICO for the only purpose of profit. It is not clear how developers will dispose of the collected money.
Autor: Semukh Gregory