Bitcoin (BTC) returning to $10,000 next month may feel unlikely, but should not surprise anyone, says the creator of one of its most accurate price models.
In a tweet on Nov. 25, PlanB, the Twitter analyst known for his Stock-to-Flow Bitcoin price charts, suggested BTC/USD could easily retake five figures before 2020.
“Call me crazy, but it wouldn’t surprise me if BTC closes 2019 at $10k+ .. opportunities like this (#bitcoin below S2F model value, 6 months before the halving) are rare,” he wrote.
Such a surge would mean Bitcoin rising 40% from current levels. This is in fact already within reach — last month, the cryptocurrency’s second-biggest daily jump ever totaled around 42%.
PlanB was referencing the current Bitcoin price underperforming in the eyes of Stock-to-Flow. At $7,100, BTC/USD is a full $1,200 below the tool’s estimate. It calls for an average price of $8,300 until the May 2020 block reward halving.
Bearish sentiment appearing so close to the halving event also caught the attention of statistician Willy Woo. Last week, Woo eyed the “unique” quality of the market this year, noting that previous halvings came during bullish price action.
Responding to PlanB, however, Woo said time had all but run out for a $10,000 push:
“We’d need to close above 8300 by the end of the month (4 more days), or we’ll likely have a bearish December to test new lows.”
He added that 2020 “will be a good year,” regardless of what happens in the short term.
More uncertain was venture capitalist Mike Novogratz, who also called for the need for an immediate reversal.
“$BTC chart needs to recover 7500 in next two days or we will be in a 6k-7400 range which would be less than pleasant,” he wrote on Twitter Tuesday.
Signs of recovery trickled onto markets on Monday, Bitcoin rising around 11% from its daily lows of $6,515. As is common, a so-called “futures gap” at $7,200 appeared to contribute to the sustained higher levels.