United States stock markets provide the backdrop for reversal in Bitcoin as $30,000 manages to hold.
Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to fresh local highs overnight into June 3 after United States equities cut losses.
Wall Street provides short-term relief
Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD gaining steadily to hit $30,670 on Bitstamp before consolidating.
The mood among stocks was more solid during the June 2 session, with the S&P 500 reclaiming the majority of its lost ground over the past month. The Nasdaq Composite Index ended up 2.7%.
Analyzing the crypto market cap compared to the Nasdaq, popular analyst TechDev noted what could be an incoming inflection point.
— TechDev (@TechDev_52) June 2, 2022
Fellow trader and analyst Pentoshi meanwhile issued a sobering outlook for the S&P 500 on weekly timeframes going forward.
My current working theory for #SPX and markets in general is this. I had talked about 3840 in the past being a key spot
I believe we just had our swing low and that the next weekly will look like the red part drawn on the chart w/ a higher low than last week and thus risk on ST https://t.co/o7uv2b40BF pic.twitter.com/TOOn6KP9Th
— Pentoshi 🔺 (@Pentosh1) May 22, 2022
Bitcoin itself continued to face calls for a retracement, which would eclipse May’s $23,800 lows.
Crypto Tony still targeted between $22,000 and $24,000, demanding a break of a trendline currently near $32,500 to consider long scalping.
“Bitcoin held the $30K level, so long would still be intact from the $29.3K region,” Michaël van de Poppe meanwhile added on his short-term strategy.
“Now flipping $30.3K would be continuation towards $31.8K possible.”
At the time of writing, BTC/USD lay at around $30,500.
Timmer: Bitcoin supply and demand needs “fresh take”
Zooming out, one on-chain analyst became the latest to take on the increasingly controversial Stock-to-Flow (S2F) BTC price model.
Having failed to validate its $100,000 end-of-year prediction in 2021, Stock-to-Flow has become increasingly sidelined as its creator, PlanB, fields criticism.
While acknowledging the model’s potential shortcomings, Jurrien Timmer, head of global macro at on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, revisited it, offering a tweak which he argued would serve to increase its utility.
“It’s time for a fresh take on Bitcoin’s supply/demand dynamics,” a dedicated Twitter thread began.
Timmer proposed taking into account Bitcoin’s supply curve to produce a more conservative trajectory for price growth. The result, he considered, had retroactively already captured BTC price action more accurately than the raw S2F predictions.
The close-up below shows that this more modest supply model has been (in hindsight) more accurate than the original S2F’s projections for this halving cycle. /15 pic.twitter.com/65WgS4Hody
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) June 2, 2022
“If accurate, It suggests still robust but less pie-in-the-sky upside than before. Maybe even several years of sideways, in line with the halving cycle, and likely continued volatility,” he continued.
PlanB had noted that the May monthly close had been Bitcoin’s lowest since December 2020.
The next block subsidy halving event is increasingly figuring as a line in the sand for a return to bullish strength.