Eleven of the largest publicly traded Bitcoin (BTC) miners may struggle to mine Bitcoin profitably if the price of BTC fails to increase significantly after the halving, analysts at financial services firm Cantor Fitzgerald have reportedly found.
A Jan. 25 post to X from CleanSpark executive chairman and co-founder Matthew Shultz — which cited research from Cantor Fitzgerald — found that many Bitcoin miners, including Marathon Digital, Riot Platforms, and Core Scientific, may come under increased pressure following the Bitcoin halving, as the Bitcoin miners receive from their operations may fail to outweigh the costs.
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While it’s worth noting that while Bitcoin miners’ revenues are closely linked to the price of Bitcoin, an executive from Luxor notes that miners often employ strategies to hedge potential losses that arise from Bitcoin price volatility.
The United Kingdom-based miner Argo Blockchain (ARBK) and Florida-based Hut 8 mining were shown as the most potentially unprofitable after halving, (at the current price of Bitcoin), with an “all in” cost-per-coin rate of $62,276 and $60,360, respectively.
In its latest Jan. 5 update on mining operations, Hut 8 reported that its total reserves stood at 9,195 BTC, worth $377 million at current prices.
The only firms that Cantor analysts expected to maintain profitability following the halving — assuming an average price of $40,000 Bitcoin and no drastic changes in hash rate — were Singapore-based miner Bitdeer and the United States mining firm CleanSpark.
Cantor’s “all in per coin” metric refers to the total costs a Bitcoin miner would incur in producing a single Bitcoin, including electricity costs, hosting fees, and other cash expenses.
The Bitcoin halving — currently scheduled for April — refers to mining rewards being cut in half for Bitcoin miners.
While many market pundits see this reduction in supply as bullish for the price of Bitcoin long-term, it also means that miners with high operational costs could suffer. This would only be worsened if the price of Bitcoin failed to reach a level that would cover these costs.
Many market commentators also believe Bitcoin will experience a significant jump in the price in the months following the halving.
Dan Rosen, the associate director of derivatives at Bitcoin miner Luxor, told miners often employ a range of strategies to hedge their exposure to BTC. This typically looks like purchasing derivatives products, such as hash rate futures contracts and BTC-related options to try and smooth out any potential volatility.