Bitcoin will soon enter what one analyst is calling “batshit season,” which could see the price of BTC surge as high as $150,000 by the end of 2024 — but others suggest a short-term seller overhang could dent the rally.
In an Aug. 26 X post, Real Vision analyst Jamie Coutts said that “unless something has fundamentally changed,” Bitcoin price action is still on track to enter “batshit season,” also known as the Banana Zone, a term coined by Real Vision founder Raoul Pal.
In an attached chart, Coutts noted that in the previous two bull cycles, Bitcoin had notched new respective all-time highs in the 365 days following local US Dollar Index peaks.
He suggested that if BTC follows previous bull market patterns, it could surge more than 100% from an approximate price of $64,000 to reach as high as $150,000 by the end of 2024.
However, other analysts aren’t as optimistic in the short term. Pseudonymous CryptoQuant researcher “XBTManager” pointed to high volumes of potential selling pressure for Bitcoin.
Short-term BTC sellers have become active
In an Aug. 27 research note, XBTManager noted that large short-term Bitcoin sellers had “become active.” He explained that while Bitcoin had staged a successful rally last week, some stagnant metrics had begun showing signs of activity once again.
“Short-term holders transferred 33,155 Bitcoin as shown by the 1w-1m spent output age bands. This could present immediate selling pressure. The slowdown in price suggests that Bitcoin might initiate a free pullback,” wrote XBTManager.
He advised “extra caution” if these figures were to increase in the coming days, adding that a potential sell-off could intensify.
On Aug. 23, Bitcoin’s price gained 6.2% and has since held steady above the $63,000 support level.
Despite this price action, many Bitcoin derivatives traders have yet to flip bullish, indicating skepticism about the recent move upward.
The Bitcoin futures premium — a key indicator of risk appetite for derivatives — has stagnated at around 6% for the last month. This indicates that many professional traders remain cautious about opening leveraged long positions.
