Bitcoin risks worst August since 2015 as hodlers brace for ‘Septembear’

BItcoin (BTC) is on track to see its worst August performance since the 2015 bear market — and next month may be even worse.

Data from on-chain analytics resource Coinglass shows that BTC/USD has not had an August this bad for seven years.

September means average 5.9% BTC price losses

After two major BTC price comedowns in recent weeks, Bitcoin hodlers are understandably fearful — but historically, September has delivered even worse performance than August.

At $20,000, BTC/USD is down 14% this month, making this August the biggest loser since 2015, when the pair posted an 18.67% red monthly candle.

Subsequent years have proven that August can be a mixed bag when it comes to BTC price performance — in 2017, for example, the largest cryptocurrency gained over 65% in a bullish record.

One month which has left no one guessing when it comes to probable price direction, however, is September. Already famous as a “red” month for Bitcoin, average losses since Coinglass records began in 2013 have been almost 6%.

This time around, macro instability is combining with tradition to deliver gloomy projections from analysts.

“Equities market in general isn’t looking good right now so this dip on $BTC is a reflection on that,” trader Josh Rager summarized as Bitcoin threatened $20,000 support.

“September in general isn’t historically a great month. Possibly dip here that ends up being buyers opportunity for following months. I’ll be a spot buyer for long term on sub $20k.”

Rager was continuing a debate over the likelihood of bitcoins from the Mt. Gox rehabilitation process being sold en masse by creditors due to receive them after an eight-year wait. Many believe that such an event will not occur, with fears to the contrary unsubstantiated.

BTC/USD monthly returns chart (screenshot). Source: Coinglass

Monthly chart “looks really ugly”

Turning to the monthly close, nervous commentators focused on whether Bitcoin could avoid a monthly candle finishing below the $20,000 mark.

Related: Why September is shaping up to be a potentially ugly month for Bitcoin price

Were it to fail to do so, BTC/USD would rival June in terms of lows absent from the chart since the end of 2020.

Worse still, such an event could spark a snowball sell-off, a concerned Galaxy Trading warned Twitter followers over the weekend.

“On a monthly TF things look really ugly,” it wrote on the day.

“If in 3 days monthly candle closes below 20k , this could trigger a big sell off to at least 14k where the next big support is located. The reason is close below 19900 means bearish engolfing candle which in a big TF is really bad.”

A move substantially below $20,000 would violate a pivot zone in place since the first move above that level in 2020, as highlighted by Caleb Franzen, senior market analyst at Cubic Analytics.

“Bitcoin looks poised for a deeper retest of the key pivot range, identified by using the December 2017 monthly wick & close. This range acted as perfect resistance in 2019, acted as a launchpad in 2020, and has been attempting to act as support in 2022,” he explained about the monthly chart.

BTC/USD 1-month candle chart (screenshot). Source: Caleb Franzen/ Twitter
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