Avalanche ‘bull trap’ risks pushing AVAX price down by 30% in February

Avalanche (AVAX) bulls should brace themselves for impact led by a growing divergence between severalkey indicators on the daily-timeframe chart.

AVAX price chart paints bearish divergence

The daily AVAX chart shows a classic bearish divergence between its price and relative strength index (RSI), a momentum oscillator forming since Jan. 11.

In other words, the price of AVAX has been making higher highs since the said date. But, on the other hand, the coin’s daily RSI has been forming lower highs. This divergence suggest a slowdown in the  momentum of the AVAX/USD pair, which may lead to a price reversal.

AVAX/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

In addition, the declining volumes during the course of AVAX’s ongoing uptrend also hints at the same bearish cues.

The price-RSI and price-volume divergences appear as AVAX price continues its 2023 uptrend . Notably, Avalanche has rallied by more than 100% year-to-date to $22.50 as of Feb. 2, helped by improving risk-on sentiments and  news of its partnership with Amazon.

On Jan. 31, Avalanche partnered with Intain, a structured finance platform that facilitates more than $5.5B in assets across more than 25 deals to run its digital marketplace IntainMARKETS via IntainMARKETS Subnet.

The price of AVAX rallied nearly 20% after the announcement.

Avalanche price risks drop 30% in February

AVAX’s price has successfully closed above two key resistance levels: a multi-month descending trendline (blacked) and its 200-day exponential moving average (200-day EMA; the blue wave) during the ongoing rally.

AVAX/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Avalanche now eyes a breakout above $22.75, which has been serving as resistance since August 2022, for a potential breakout to $30 as its next upside target. This level also coincides with the falling wedge breakout target discussed in this analysis.

In other words, an approximately 30% gain from the current price levels.

Conversely, a pullback from the resistance level, fueled by the bearish divergence indicators discussed above, could send AVAX price toward its 50-day EMA (the red wave) at approximately $15-$16, down about 30% from current prices.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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